Commerce Express Weekly Road Map:
May 20th, 2025
Keeping you informed on the latest news/insights in our industry.
Tariffs:
Last week the United States and China reached a trade agreement, marking a significant step. Under the deal, both countries will roll back some of their tariffs. Per an Executive Order, both sides agreed to a 90-day pause and will each lower tariffs down by 115%. Other U.S. measures will remain in place.
This tariff impact has also driven an increase in demand for bonded warehousing, putting added pressure on trucking routes serving inland markets.
Diesel update:
The average price of diesel increased by 6 cents a gallon. Putting the average price of diesel at $3.536 per the U.S. EIA.
The Midwest region (up 6.5 cents), USWC (up 8.5 cents), USGC (up 5.8 cents), and the USEC (up 4.6 cents), all saw increases compared to last week.
Intermodal: Norfolk Southern will end their international intermodal service on over 20 routes throughout the U.S. East Coast, effective May 31st, the Journal of Commerce reports. One of those routes is the Port of Virginia to Memphis, and Chicago to Jacksonville.
Regulations: Oregon is hitting pause on enforcement of its Advanced Clean Trucks Rule, effective immediately. As reported by Transport Topics, the state is implementing a two-year delay, during which manufacturers will not face penalties for failing to meet zero-emission vehicle sales targets. However, they will still be required to submit sales and compliance reports on their efforts to adapt clean technologies.
Commerce Blog
However, gone are the days of crowbars and broken padlocks. The advent of more technologically advanced, and subsequently dependent, supply chains has led to an evolution in the execution of cargo theft. Today, instances of it are smarter, faster, more cunning, more deceiving, and more prevalent than any other period in trucking’s history.
An example of cargo theft’s beguiling makeover is the fictitious pickup—a scheme where cargo is stolen by fraudulent means, like a truck driver using phony identification or a fictious business posing as a real trucking company hired to haul a load.
A Mixed Bag in April for Freight
According to the Cass Information Systems Shipments Index, freight volumes edged up 0.4% in April compared to March. The year-over-year decline also narrowed, with shipments down 3.6% in April versus 5.3% in March. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the index rose 0.3% – a modest recovery following a 2.1% drop the previous month.
What does that actually mean for the truckload market? As noted in this week’s trucking news headline, the outlook is a mixed bag. While freight volumes could see a short-term boost in the coming months, there’s also a chance international volumes may dip in May and June – before potentially seeing renewed strength in Q3.
Another component of the Cass Freight Index is their Expenditures – which is the total amount spent on freight – and increased 3.3% month-over-month in April. This year-over-year uptick in spending was driven largely by rising rates, as shipment volumes actually declined 3.6%. Based on this, Cass estimates freight rates climbed 5.1% year-over-year in April.
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